Summary
June opened with US indices at record highs and Alphabet’s unprecedented $80bn equity raise for AI infrastructure. Then it cracked. Broadcom’s cautious AI guidance triggered a $1.3-1.4trn semiconductor selloff on 4-5 June, and a blowout May jobs report (+172k vs +80k expected) flipped the narrative from rate cuts to rate hikes overnight. The ECB delivered its first hike since 2023 on 11 June, 25bp to a 2.25% deposit rate, citing Iran-war inflation directly, hours after Trump threatened then stood down from renewed strikes on Iran. Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair (17 June) held rates at 3.50-3.75% but delivered a hawkish dot plot and no chair projection: a genuine break in how the Fed communicates. That same day, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum at Versailles, the war’s most concrete de-escalation step yet, tested within 48 hours by a fresh Israel-Hezbollah flare-up. SpaceX priced the largest IPO in history on 11 June ($75bn raised, $1.77trn valuation), debuted up 19% the next day, and was confirmed for Nasdaq-100 inclusion from 7 July. UK PM Keir Starmer resigned on 22 June, the sixth UK PM to leave outside No.10 in seven years, with Andy Burnham the likely successor. A Korea-led AI/chip correction and an 18% one-day collapse in Rheinmetall rounded out the month’s shocks. None of it stopped US equities closing their best quarter since the 2020 rebound: S&P 500 +9.55% YTD, Nasdaq +12.79%, Dow at a record close, Russell 2000 +21.86%. Markets climbed the wall of worry. (Compiled 8 July 2026 / London)
Major Indices Tracker
What happened in May?
🔑 Macro Context — The Dominant Theme
The US-Israel-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption, running since late February 2026, was still the single largest swing factor for global markets through most of June. It drove the ECB’s first hike since 2023, fed into US and UK inflation prints, and set the month’s sharpest single-session equity moves. The pivotal moment came on 17 June: Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding at Versailles during the G7 summit, committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt military operations. That framework was tested almost immediately, first by an Israel-Hezbollah flare-up on 18-19 June, then by fresh strikes near Hormuz over the 27-28 June weekend. By month-end the reopening was visibly real: Saudi-flagged tankers transiting, Kuwait lifting force majeure, Iraq restarting production, Brent easing to ~$73/bbl. The war is de-escalating. It is not resolved.
Week commencing 1 June 2026
US equities opened the week at record highs on Alphabet’s unprecedented $80bn equity raise ($30bn public offering, $40bn ATM, plus a $10bn Berkshire Hathaway private placement) for AI infrastructure. Then it cracked. Broadcom’s underwhelming AI guidance on Wednesday triggered a chip-sector selloff worth an estimated $1.3-1.4trn by Friday, and a blowout May jobs report (+172k vs +80k consensus) flipped the market narrative from rate cuts to rate hikes in a single session. The S&P 500 fell 2.64% and the Nasdaq 4.18% on Friday alone, the worst Nasdaq session since April 2025, as the VIX jumped 34%. The Iran war stayed the backdrop throughout: oil whipsawed between $90 and $101/bbl on ceasefire headlines and fresh Iranian missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, the US naval blockade cut Iranian crude exports by an estimated 90% in May, and the House passed a war-powers resolution to constrain Trump’s war authority. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first full week opened with an internal memo pledging continuity. Elsewhere, SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share ($75bn raise, $1.77trn valuation) ahead of a 12 June Nasdaq debut, and Quantinuum raised $1.68bn on its own listing: a hot new-issue market even as secondary equities wobbled. Eurozone flash inflation jumped to 3.2% in May, setting up the ECB’s hike the following week.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 1 Jun | S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all closed at fresh record highs, led by tech and energy. Alphabet unveiled an $80bn equity raise ($30bn public offering, $40bn ATM, $10bn Berkshire Hathaway private placement) for AI infrastructure. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s internal memo pledged to follow “the best of the Fed’s traditions.” UK May Manufacturing PMI hit 53.9, a four-year high. SpaceX reserved up to 5% of IPO shares for employees ahead of a roadshow starting ~4 June. | 🟢 Risk-on | AI capex is the story. Alphabet’s raise weighs on GOOGL even as the index sits at records. |
Tue 2 Jun | S&P 500 closed above 7,600 for the first time (7,609.78, +0.13%); Nasdaq record 27,093.90 (+0.03%); Dow +228.91pts (+0.45%) to 51,307.79. Marvell +21-25% after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang called it the “next trillion-dollar company” at Computex; HPE +25% on a Q2 beat. Alphabet fell 4% on the stock-sale overhang. Eurozone flash May HICP hit 3.2% YoY, the highest since September 2023. | 🟢 Records, narrow breadth | Chip rally papers over Alphabet’s slide. The inflation surprise makes next week’s ECB call live. |
Wed 3 Jun | Dow -1.21%, S&P 500 -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.89%, Russell 2000 -1.25%: a pullback from records on an oil and yield spike. ADP May private payrolls +122k (vs +117k est). ISM Services PMI 54.5% (Prices Index 71.3, highest since Aug 2022). Broadcom’s Q2 revenue of $22.19bn narrowly missed; adj. EPS $2.44 beat; but the guide for next-quarter AI semiconductor growth (200% YoY to $16bn) fell short of the $17.2bn estimate, and shares fell 6% after hours. Iran launched missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain; the US struck Qeshm Island and tankers bound for Iran. Oil: WTI +3.2% to $96.73; Brent +2.9% to $98.80. | 🔴 Risk-off | Broadcom’s cautious guide is the tell for Thursday’s rout. Fresh Iran hostilities and the oil spike hit everything at once. |
Thu 4 Jun | Nasdaq’s worst one-day decline since roughly April 2025 as chip stocks sold off hard on Broadcom’s guidance (Broadcom -14%); Nvidia -6% (briefly losing its $5trn valuation), AMD -10.9% to $466.38, Intel -11.3% to $99.17: an estimated $1.3-1.4trn wiped from the semiconductor sector in a day. Quantinuum’s IPO priced at $60 (above range), raising $1.68bn at a $15.7bn valuation, and debuted on Nasdaq as “QNT.” SpaceX priced its own IPO at a fixed $135/share ($75bn raise, $1.77trn valuation), Nasdaq debut targeted for 12 June. The US House passed a war-powers resolution (215-208) to constrain Trump’s Iran war authority. | 🔴 Chip-led selloff | AI capex ROI is now under real scrutiny, but two landmark IPOs still priced into a weak tape. Risk appetite hasn’t actually left. |
Fri 5 Jun | US May NFP: +172k vs +80k consensus, a large beat. Unemployment held at 4.3%; average hourly earnings +0.3% MoM/+3.4% YoY. The strong print read as hawkish and triggered a broad selloff: Nasdaq -4.18% (worst day since April 2025), S&P 500 -2.64% to 7,383.74, Dow -1.35% (-695pts) to 50,866.78, Russell 2000 -3.47%. VIX +34%, closing above 20; 20yr/30yr Treasury yields moved back above 5%. Chip stocks extended the rout: Nvidia -4.95%, AMD -8.79%, Micron -9.4%, Broadcom -5.8%. Meta reportedly explored its own multi-billion-dollar share sale days after Alphabet’s; Meta fell 7%. | 🔴 Sharp risk-off | Good news is bad news. A strong jobs print repriced Fed-hike odds and drove the week’s steepest selloff. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | S&P fell 2.64% Friday alone as the May jobs beat flipped the rate narrative from cuts to hikes. Broadcom’s cautious AI guidance triggered an estimated $1.3-1.4trn chip-sector selloff into Thursday-Friday. Alphabet’s $80bn AI-infrastructure raise was the week’s other landmark story. Economists now put the odds of a Fed hike by December at 70%. | Nasdaq’s worst week in months; VIX +34% Friday; long-end yields back above 5%. | 🔴 The AI capex arms race collided with a hawkish repricing this week. Broadcom’s guidance and the jobs print set up next week’s CPI and ECB decisions as the real test. |
🇬🇧 UK | May Manufacturing PMI hit 53.9, a four-year high: the week’s one bright spot. BoE’s next meeting isn’t until 18 June. | FTSE 100 and GBP daily levels for this specific week could not be independently verified. | 🟡 Domestic data is resilient but irrelevant next to US-driven volatility and Iran-war energy costs. |
🇪🇺 Europe | Flash May HICP jumped to 3.2% YoY, the highest since September 2023 (energy +10.9%), making the ECB’s 11 June meeting a live hike decision. | Inflation surprise is the key input into next week’s ECB call. | ⚠️ The ECB now has both cover and pressure to hike for the first time since 2023. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | Nikkei swung hard (+0.91% Mon, -1.32% Tue, +2.50% Wed to 68,402.13); Kospi +3.68% Mon on Samsung’s push to a fresh high, then -1.92% Tue; Hang Seng and CSI 300 roughly flat to down on the week. SoftBank rose 14% on a €45bn AI-infrastructure investment plan for France. | Mixed regional performance. | 🟡 AI capex optimism (SoftBank, Marvell) and Iran-war jitters are fighting to a draw. |
🛢️ Middle East | Oil whipsawed $90-101/bbl on ceasefire-talk headlines, Iran’s suspension of indirect talks, missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, and US strikes on Qeshm Island and Iran-bound tankers. UANI reported Iranian crude shipments through the US blockade fell roughly 90% in May; 45 confirmed maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman since the war began. | Brent volatile within a wide range. | 🔴 The war is still the single largest swing factor for global energy and inflation pricing. |
🌍 Rest of World | SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share ($75bn raise, $1.77trn valuation) ahead of a 12 June Nasdaq debut. Quantinuum raised $1.68bn at a $15.7bn valuation on its own debut. The House passed a war-powers resolution; new US tariffs (10-12.5%) were proposed on roughly 20 economies tied to a forced-labour investigation. | Record new-issue activity despite a weak secondary tape. | ⚠️ Risk appetite for landmark IPOs held up even as everything else sold off. That divergence is worth watching. |
Week commencing 8 June 2026
Markets stabilised early in the week, then took another hit. US May CPI printed at 4.2% YoY on Wednesday, the first reading above 4% since 2023, energy up 23.5% YoY on Hormuz disruption, and Trump chose that moment to threaten renewed military action against Iran. Risk-off followed immediately. The threat reversed within 24 hours: Thursday’s rally, the Nasdaq’s best day in two months, came after Trump called off a bombing raid on Iran that evening. The same day, the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, 25bp to a 2.25% deposit rate, reversing eight consecutive cuts and citing Iran-war inflation risk directly: the first G7 central bank to respond this way. Oracle’s FY2026 results (record cloud revenue, up 47%) were overshadowed by a further $20bn capex guide that sent shares down 9-11%, an early sign of AI-capex indigestion. The week closed with the largest IPO in history: SpaceX priced at $135/share Thursday evening and debuted Friday under “SPCX,” closing its first session up 19% at roughly $161, a ~$2.1trn market cap, pushing Elon Musk toward becoming the world’s first trillionaire. UK April GDP came in broadly in line, -0.1% MoM, +0.7% on a three-month basis.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 8 Jun | S&P 500 +0.3% to 7,405.73; Dow -0.2% to 50,786.01; Nasdaq +0.9% to 25,929.66: recovering from Friday’s 2.6% S&P drop. Chip and memory stocks rebounded (Micron ~+10% after -13% Friday). Apple +2%+ as WWDC opened. Europe broadly flat (Stoxx 600 -0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.05%, CAC -0.21%, DAX -0.47%). | 🟡 Stabilising | A bounce from Friday’s rout, and a tentative one. |
Tue 9 Jun | S&P 500 -0.3% to 7,386.65; Dow +0.2% to 50,872.11; Nasdaq -1.0% to 25,678.82: swung from +1% intraday to -2.3% before closing modestly lower on AI/chip volatility. China May trade data: exports +19.4% YoY to a record $376.78bn, imports +27.4% YoY; Jan-May trade surplus $451.71bn. Gold fell to year lows (-1.76% to $4,286.40) on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Europe softer (Stoxx 600 -0.42%, FTSE 100 -1.4% on energy/mining, DAX -0.8%). | 🟡 Choppy | AI-stock volatility and a China trade beat are pulling in opposite directions. |
Wed 10 Jun | US May CPI: headline +0.5% MoM / +4.2% YoY (in line, first above 4% since May 2023); core +0.2% MoM / +2.9% YoY (below 0.3% est); energy +3.9% MoM / +23.5% YoY. S&P 500 -1.6% to 7,266.99; Dow -1.9% (-953pts) to 49,918.78; Nasdaq -2.0% to 25,169.50: the first back-to-back drop in three weeks, as Trump said Iran talks were “taking too long” and threatened more military action. Oracle FY2026 results (after close): record Q4 revenue, cloud revenue $9.9bn (+47%), cloud infrastructure $5.8bn (+93%), FY revenue $67.4bn (record). | 🔴 Risk-off | Hot CPI plus a fresh Iran military threat. Oracle’s headline beat hasn’t hit the tape yet. |
Thu 11 Jun | ECB raised rates 25bp, deposit rate 2.00%→2.25%: first hike since the 2023 cycle ended, reversing eight consecutive cuts, citing Iran-war-driven inflation. US equities rallied sharply after Trump called off a threatened bombing of Iran that evening: S&P 500 +1.8% to 7,394.30; Dow +1.9% (+930pts) to 50,848.75; Nasdaq +2.5% (best day in two months). Oracle fell 9-11% on a further $20bn equity/debt raise to fund AI capex (FY capex guide raised to $55.7bn). SpaceX IPO priced: 555.6m Class A shares at $135.00, implying a $1.77trn valuation, the largest-ever IPO, trading to begin Friday under “SPCX.” | 🟢 Sharp risk-on | The ECB’s hawkish pivot was swamped by an even bigger relief rally on Iran de-escalation. |
Fri 12 Jun | S&P 500 +0.5% to 7,431.46; Dow +0.7% (+354pts) to 51,202.26; Nasdaq +0.3% to 25,888.84: lifted by a 3.4% drop in Brent on Iran-deal hopes. SpaceX (“SPCX”) debut: opened at $150 (above the $135 IPO price), closed +19% at ~$161, market cap ~$2.1trn, the sixth most valuable US-listed company. UK April monthly GDP -0.1% MoM (in line), three-month growth +0.7%. Europe rallied broadly on the Brent drop (Stoxx 600 +1.8%, FTSE 100 +1.63%, DAX +1.66%, CAC +1.83%). | 🟢 Strong risk-on | The largest IPO in history caps a volatile week. European bourses catch up hard on the oil-driven relief. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | A genuine whipsaw week: a CPI-driven selloff Wednesday, then Trump’s Iran-threat-then-stand-down reversal Thursday-Friday. May CPI hit 4.2% YoY, the first above-4% print since 2023. Oracle’s beat-and-raise was overshadowed by a fresh $20bn capital raise. SpaceX’s record $75bn/$1.77trn IPO debuted up 19%. | S&P roughly flat to slightly higher on the week despite the mid-week selloff. | 🟡 A two-sided week: inflation and war-threat risk against an outsized AI-and-IPO risk-appetite signal. Net positive, barely. |
🇬🇧 UK | April monthly GDP -0.1% (in line), three-month trend +0.7%: steady, unremarkable. FTSE 100 fell 1.4% Tuesday on the energy/mining drag, then rallied 1.63% Friday on the oil-price relief. | FTSE trading as a high-beta proxy for Middle East headlines. | 🟡 Domestic data is a non-event. The FTSE is now just a proxy for Middle East de-escalation news. |
🇪🇺 Europe | ECB hiked 25bp to a 2.25% deposit rate on 11 June, the first hike since 2023, explicitly tied to Iran-war energy inflation. European equities rallied hard into Friday (Stoxx 600 +1.8%) on the oil-price drop. | Stoxx 600’s best day of the month came on Friday. | ⚠️ The ECB is hiking into a war-driven inflation shock while growth stays soft. A genuine policy bind, not a comfortable one. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | China’s May exports rose 19.4% YoY to a record $376.78bn, imports +27.4%; May CPI +1.2% YoY (below 1.3% est), PPI +3.9% YoY, the fastest since July 2022, on war-driven commodity cost pass-through. | China trade resilience is a rare bright spot. | 🟢 China’s trade beat is genuinely encouraging. The PPI acceleration is the catch: imported inflation risk is building via the Hormuz disruption. |
🛢️ Middle East | An extremely volatile week: Trump threatened, then called off, renewed strikes on Iran within 24 hours (10-11 Jun). Oil swung sharply on the reversal, Brent fell 3.4% Friday alone. | Brent volatile within a $90-99/bbl range. | 🔴 This is still the single largest source of day-to-day equity volatility. Headline risk dominates positioning. |
🌍 Rest of World | SpaceX’s $75bn IPO, the largest in history, priced Thursday and debuted Friday up 19% to a ~$2.1trn market cap. Musk’s net worth reportedly approached $1trn. | A landmark capital-markets event. | 🟢 Risk appetite for AI and space-infrastructure names is fully intact, whatever the macro backdrop says. |
Week commencing 15 June 2026
This was the most catalyst-dense week of the month. Monday’s rally came on reports the US and Iran had reached a tentative deal to reopen crude flows; Brent fell 4.8% intraday. The Bank of Japan then delivered a historic 25bp hike to 1.00% on Tuesday, the highest since 1995, sending the Nikkei through ¥70,000 intraday for the first time ever. Wednesday brought Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair: a unanimous hold at 3.50-3.75%, but a shorter, tougher statement, a hawkish dot plot (2026 median raised to 3.8% from 3.4%), and Warsh’s unusual choice not to submit his own dot. Equities sold off the same day. Hours later, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding at Versailles during the G7 summit: a ceasefire-and-reconstruction framework including Strait of Hormuz reopening and a proposed $300bn regional fund. It was tested almost immediately by a fresh Israel-Hezbollah flare-up that forced a renewed ceasefire on Friday. The BoE held rates at 3.75% Thursday but with a more hawkish 7-2 vote split, up from 8-1 in April. US markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth. The week still finished up: S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +2.4%.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 15 Jun | S&P 500 +1.7% (+122.8pts) to 7,554.29; Dow +0.9% (+468.8pts) to 51,671.03; Nasdaq +3.1% (+795.1pts) to 26,683.94: a rally on reports the US and Iran reached a tentative deal to reopen crude flows; Brent fell ~4.8% intraday to ~$84.62. The G7 Leaders’ Summit opened in Évian-les-Bains, France (15-17 June). DAX +1.05% to 24,894.01; CAC +0.40% to 8,384.01. | 🟢 Strong risk-on | Iran-deal hopes drive the rally, AI and tech lead. |
Tue 16 Jun | Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25bp to 1.00% (highest since 1995), vote 7-1, driven by upside inflation risk from war-related energy cost pass-through. Nikkei 225 breached ¥70,000 intraday for the first time ever, closing at a record 69,404 (+0.13%). The Dow hit a fresh record closing high ahead of the FOMC decision; chip stocks lagged. | 🟢 Constructive | The BOJ hike reads as confidence, not a shock. |
Wed 17 Jun | FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75%, unanimous 12-0: Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair. The statement was notably shorter, dropped the prior easing-bias language, and cited the Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty. Dot plot: median 2026 year-end projection raised to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March); Warsh declined to submit his own dot, a first for a sitting chair. Equities sold off: Dow -0.98% (-507pts) to 51,492.55; S&P 500 -1.21% to 7,420.10; Nasdaq -1.34% to 26,021.66. 10yr yield rose ~4bp to ~4.47%. Hours later: Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point MOU at Versailles, covering immediate cessation of operations, Hormuz reopening, partial sanctions relief, Iran’s nuclear-weapons commitment, and a proposed $300bn regional reconstruction fund. UK May CPI held at 2.8% YoY, unchanged from April. | 🔴 then 🟢 | A two-sided day. Rates repriced higher, but the Iran MOU is the biggest de-escalation signal of the war so far. |
Thu 18 Jun | BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75%, vote 7-2 (two dissents for a 25bp hike, vs 8-1 in April): a hawkish shift, citing Middle East energy-price risk. US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 Jun) came in at 226,000, just above the 225,000 consensus. The dollar index hit 100.725, its highest since May 2025. Kospi and Nikkei touched fresh records. | 🟡 Hawkish drift | The BoE’s widening dissent mirrors the Fed’s tougher tone. |
Fri 19 Jun | US markets closed for Juneteenth. Fighting flared between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, threatening to derail the Versailles MOU; a renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was agreed the same day, mediated by the US, Qatar and Iran. US-Iran technical talks scheduled for Switzerland that weekend were postponed as a result. Weekly US wrap: S&P 500 +0.9%, Dow +0.7%, Nasdaq +2.4%, an eleventh winning week in twelve. | 🟡 Fragile peace | The MOU survived its first real-world stress test. Only just. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | The Fed’s hawkish hold on 17 June was the story: Warsh’s debut as Chair brought a tougher statement, a hawkish dot plot and no chair dot, triggering a same-day selloff before the Versailles MOU news partly offset it. The week still finished positive (S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +2.4%) despite the Wednesday wobble and Friday’s holiday closure. | S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +2.4% on the week. | 🟡 This was the first real test of “Warsh-era” Fed communication, and markets read the dot plot as genuinely hawkish. |
🇬🇧 UK | The BoE held at 3.75%, but the 7-2 vote, up from 8-1, signals a widening hawkish minority; May CPI held at 2.8% YoY. | Gilt yields firmer on the widening dissent. | ⚠️ The BoE is increasingly boxed in between war-driven energy inflation and weak underlying growth. |
🇪🇺 Europe | The G7 summit hosted the Trump-Pezeshkian MOU signing, a genuine diplomatic win for the European hosts; European equities firmed through the week (DAX, CAC both higher). | Stoxx 600 firm into the weekend. | 🟢 A diplomatic breakthrough hosted on European soil is a real sentiment win, not just a headline. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | The BOJ’s 25bp hike to 1.00% on 16 June, the highest since 1995, sent the Nikkei through ¥70,000 intraday for the first time in history; Kospi also touched fresh records this week. | Nikkei and Kospi both at records. | 🟢 The BOJ hike reads as confidence, not a tightening shock. Japan’s reflation story is intact even as policy normalises. |
🛢️ Middle East | The week’s central storyline: the Trump-Pezeshkian MOU signed at Versailles on 17 June marks the most concrete step yet toward ending the war, but a fresh Israel-Hezbollah flare-up on 18-19 June forced a renewed ceasefire and postponed follow-on US-Iran technical talks. | Brent volatile around the signing and the flare-up. | 🟡 Genuine progress, but the MOU is not a final treaty. The Lebanon flare-up shows exactly how fragile it still is. |
🌍 Rest of World | SpaceX’s post-IPO trading continued as a live storyline; no independently verified day-specific share moves this week. | — | No new verified events this week beyond the ongoing SpaceX and AI-capex threads. |
Week commencing 22 June 2026
UK politics produced the week’s biggest shock. PM Keir Starmer resigned Monday, the sixth UK PM to depart outside No.10 in seven years, following May’s poor local election results and a cabinet resignation wave. Andy Burnham was the widely tipped successor. Markets otherwise focused on a broadening AI/chip-stock rout: South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq sold off sharply through Tuesday-Thursday (Samsung and SK Hynix both down 8%+ at the worst of it, Korean exchange circuit breakers triggered), and the Nasdaq logged five consecutive losing sessions, down 4.6% on the week even as the Dow, less tech-heavy, rose 0.6%. A sharp large-cap/tech divergence. European defence stocks took their own hit Wednesday: Rheinmetall fell roughly 18%, its worst day since 1989, after Berlin scrapped a multi-billion-euro F126 frigate contract for a smaller TKMS order, dragging Hensoldt, Renk, Saab and Leonardo lower with it. Oil-sensitive sectors rallied hard on the flip side, as the Strait of Hormuz began reopening under the Versailles MOU: Brent eased toward the high-$70s and the S&P Passenger Airlines index hit an all-time high, up roughly 13% since the 12 June ceasefire. May US PCE inflation printed hot Thursday, headline +4.1% YoY, core +3.4%, keeping the “no near-term Fed cut” narrative alive.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 22 Jun | S&P 500 -0.37% to 7,472.79; tech names sold off (Alphabet -5%, Amazon -4.8%, Meta -2.3%, Microsoft -3%) ahead of Thursday’s PCE data. UK PM Keir Starmer announced his resignation, the sixth UK PM to depart outside No.10 in seven years, following poor May local election results and a cabinet resignation wave; Andy Burnham widely tipped as successor. Sterling and UK shares reportedly firmed on the news. | 🟡 Mixed | A US tech wobble against a genuine UK political shock, initially read as a relief since it removes uncertainty. |
Tue 23 Jun | S&P 500 -1.44% to 7,365.46; Nasdaq -2.21% to 25,587.04; Dow -0.09% to 51,666.84. Eurozone flash June PMI: Composite 49.5 (from 48.5, vs 49.1 forecast), still contractionary but improving; Manufacturing 51.2, Services 48.9. South Korea’s Kospi sold off sharply (Samsung, SK Hynix under pressure) as the Asia chip-stock rout began. Stoxx 600 -0.57%, CAC -0.7%, DAX -0.8%. | 🔴 Broad risk-off | A chip-sector correction spreading from Korea into US tech. |
Wed 24 Jun | S&P 500 -0.10% to 7,358.22; Nasdaq -0.43% to 25,476.64; Dow +0.35% (+182pts) to 51,848.90. Rheinmetall fell ~18%, its worst day since 1989, after Berlin scrapped its F126 frigate contract for TKMS’s smaller Meko A-200 order; Hensoldt -3.3%, Renk -7.2%, Saab -2.8%, Leonardo -4.7%. German Ifo Business Climate hit 85.6 (up from 85.0, a 3-month high). Micron fiscal Q3 beat-and-raise reported after close. US airline stocks rallied as oil retreated toward pre-war levels (S&P Passenger Airlines index +5% to an all-time high, +13% since the 12 June ceasefire); Brent ~$78/bbl. | 🟡 Sector-divergent | Defence de-rates sharply even as oil-sensitive airlines rally hard on the same Hormuz-reopening news. |
Thu 25 Jun | S&P 500 -0.05% to 7,354.02; Nasdaq -0.24% to 25,297.62 (5th consecutive losing session); Dow -0.09% to 51,876.11. US May PCE: headline +4.1% YoY (up from 3.8%, highest since April 2023); core +3.4% YoY (up from 3.3%); personal income and spending both +0.7% MoM. Kospi and Kosdaq circuit breakers triggered as the index fell over 8% intraday; Samsung -8%+, SK Hynix -9%+ on AI-infrastructure-cost concerns. | ⚠️ Hot inflation, chip rout deepens | PCE keeps the Fed on hold for longer. Korea’s tech unwind is the sharpest single-day move of the month. |
Fri 26 Jun | S&P 500 -0.01% to 7,357.49; Nasdaq -0.5% to 25,358.6; Dow +0.1% to 51,920.62: a quiet close to a rough week. Weekly wrap: S&P 500 down 2% on the week, Nasdaq -4.6% (the worst weekly tech performance of the month), Dow +0.6%: a stark large-cap/tech divergence. Japan’s Tokyo core CPI hit +1.6% YoY in June (up from 1.3% in May, the first acceleration since Sept 2025). | 🟡 Stabilising into the weekend | The tech-led weekly loss is offset by Dow resilience; Tokyo CPI’s acceleration is a modest hawkish datapoint for the BOJ. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | A broad AI/chip-stock rout dominated the week: Nasdaq’s five straight losing sessions (-4.6% on the week) sat against Dow resilience (+0.6%). May PCE printed hot (headline 4.1%, core 3.4% YoY), extending the “higher for longer” narrative from Warsh’s FOMC debut the prior week. | Nasdaq -4.6% on the week; Dow +0.6%. | 🔴 AI-capex-economics doubts are now a standalone risk factor, separate from the war and inflation narrative. |
🇬🇧 UK | PM Keir Starmer’s resignation on 22 June is the dominant story, the sixth UK PM to depart outside No.10 in seven years; Andy Burnham is the frontrunner for the Labour leadership contest (nominations from 9 Jul, new leader by 16 Jul). | Sterling and UK shares initially firmed on the news. | 🟡 A political-risk premium will likely build into sterling and gilts as the leadership contest plays out. |
🇪🇺 Europe | Rheinmetall’s 18% collapse on 24 June, on the F126 frigate cancellation, raises real questions about the durability of the post-2022 European rearmament trade, even as flash PMI (49.5) and German Ifo (85.6) both ticked up modestly. | Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense broadly weaker on the week. | ⚠️ The “buy the rearmament theme unconditionally” trade is over. Contract-specific execution risk is back in focus. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | Kospi and Kosdaq saw the sharpest single-week decline of the month (Samsung and SK Hynix both down 8%+ at the low, circuit breakers triggered 25 Jun) on AI-infrastructure-cost concerns; Tokyo core CPI accelerated to 1.6% YoY. | Kospi and Kosdaq’s worst week of the month. | 🔴 Korea’s chip-heavy index is now the highest-beta proxy for AI-capex-doubt sentiment globally. |
🛢️ Middle East | The Strait of Hormuz reopening progressed materially this week under the Versailles MOU: Saudi-flagged tankers transited, Kuwait lifted force majeure, Iraq restarted oilfield production; Brent eased to ~$78/bbl, close to pre-war levels. | Brent ~$78/bbl, down from war-peak levels. | 🟢 The most tangible, sustained de-escalation signal of the month, and it’s driving the airline-sector rally directly. |
🌍 Rest of World | US airline and passenger-transport stocks were the standout positive sector story, up roughly 13% since the 12 June ceasefire as fuel costs normalised. | The S&P Passenger Airlines index sits at an all-time high. | 🟢 Direct read-through from Hormuz reopening into travel and consumer-discretionary names. |
Week commencing 29 June 2026 (month close)
The final two sessions of June closed out the best quarter for major US indices since the 2020 pandemic rebound: the S&P 500 finished the month at 7,449.36 (+9.55% YTD), the Nasdaq +12.79%, the Dow at a record close (+8.85%), and the Russell 2000 the standout at +21.86%. A weekend flare-up in US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz briefly threatened the Versailles framework before both sides agreed to stand down on Monday, with envoys Witkoff and Kushner headed to Doha for Qatar-mediated talks. Corporate activity was frenetic into quarter-end: Alphabet formally joined the Dow, replacing Verizon; Comcast announced a spin-off of NBCUniversal and Sky, shares up 22-25%; Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium for $8bn; and SpaceX was confirmed for Nasdaq-100 inclusion from 7 July. The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to protect Fed independence in the Lisa Cook case, a notable structural datapoint given the Warsh transition. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, a third straight month of expansion on AI-linked export strength. Sterling closed out its worst month in a year, down roughly 2.2%, on falling oil and the Starmer resignation.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 29 Jun | US-Iran tensions flared again over the weekend near the Strait of Hormuz before both sides agreed to “stand down for now”; envoys Witkoff and Kushner travelled to Doha for Qatar-mediated talks. Alphabet formally joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Verizon (+4.96%). Comcast announced a spin-off separating Comcast from NBCUniversal (including Sky); shares +22-25% premarket. Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium Communications for $8bn (Rocket Lab +15.9%, Iridium +25.4%). The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Trump cannot, for now, fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Brent ~$73/bbl. | 🟢 Risk-on into quarter-end | Both the M&A wave and the Iran stand-down are constructive. |
Tue 30 Jun (Q2/H1 close) | Dow closed at a record 52,319.20 (+0.26%, +8.85% YTD); Nasdaq +1.52% to 26,213.72 (+12.79% YTD); S&P 500 +0.79% to 7,449.36 (+9.55% YTD); Russell 2000 +0.46% to 3,024.37 (+21.86% YTD, the best major index of the year). US indexes closed their best quarter since 2020. VIX closed ~16.4-16.5; 10yr Treasury 4.461%. China’s official Manufacturing PMI hit 50.3 in June (up from 50.0), a third straight expansionary month on AI-linked high-tech export strength. SpaceX confirmed for Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective 7 July. Sterling closed its worst month in a year, down roughly 2.2%, on falling oil and Starmer’s resignation. | 🟢 Best quarter since 2020 | Broad-based strength across every major index into quarter-end. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | The best quarter for major indices since the 2020 pandemic rebound: S&P +9.55% YTD, Nasdaq +12.79%, Dow +8.85% (record close), Russell 2000 +21.86% (the year’s best major index) as of 30 June. Heavy quarter-end M&A activity and a Supreme Court ruling protecting Fed independence rounded out the month. | S&P +9.55% YTD; Nasdaq +12.79% YTD; Dow at a record close. | 🟢 A war, a hawkish Fed transition and a chip-stock correction couldn’t stop a historically strong H1. Markets climbed the wall of worry. |
🇬🇧 UK | Sterling posted its worst month in a year (roughly -2.2%) on falling oil (fewer priced BoE hikes) plus the Starmer-resignation political-risk premium. | GBP/USD at its weakest since the Starmer resignation. | 🟡 GBP is now the highest-beta G10 currency to both oil direction and UK politics. |
🇪🇺 Europe | No major standalone events in this window beyond the broader Versailles-MOU de-escalation backdrop. | — | — |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | China’s official Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, a third straight expansionary month; new export orders returned to expansion (50.1, from 48.6) on AI-linked high-tech demand. | China’s manufacturing PMI at a multi-month high. | 🟢 China’s export-led manufacturing recovery, concentrated in AI-adjacent hardware, is a genuine positive surprise to close the quarter. |
🛢️ Middle East | A weekend flare-up in US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz briefly reintroduced tail risk before both sides stood down Monday; Qatar-mediated talks continued via Doha. Brent ended the month around $73/bbl, down sharply from the war’s price peaks. | Brent ~$73/bbl at month-end. | 🟡 The war is de-escalating, not resolved. Expect continued episodic volatility into Q3. |
🌍 Rest of World | SpaceX was confirmed for Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective 7 July, with an estimated ~$4.3bn in passive index-fund inflows expected. | A structural, mechanical demand source for SPCX shares. | 🟢 A real, structural tailwind for SPCX heading into Q3. |
Macro Situation - Key Macro Themes
Theme | Status | Watch For |
US-Iran War / Hormuz | 🟡 De-escalating: Versailles MOU signed 17 Jun; Hormuz reopening in progress; a fresh flare-up 27-28 Jun resolved with a “stand-down” 29 Jun | The MOU’s 60-day follow-on negotiation window; durability of the Hormuz reopening; further Lebanon/Hezbollah flashpoints |
Oil Price Path | 🟢 Brent ~$73/bbl at month-end, down sharply from war-peak levels as Hormuz reopens | Sustainability of the reopening; OPEC+ response to lower prices |
Fed (US), Warsh era | 🟡 Held 3.50-3.75% at first Warsh-chaired FOMC (17 Jun); hawkish dot plot (2026 median 3.8%); Supreme Court protected Fed independence in the Cook case (30 Jun) | FOMC minutes (due 8 Jul); the next meeting; further Warsh communication-style signals |
ECB | 🔴 Hiked 25bp to a 2.25% deposit rate (11 Jun), the first hike since 2023, reversing eight consecutive cuts, on war-driven inflation | Whether further hikes follow if the Hormuz reopening sustains disinflation |
BoE | ⚠️ Held 3.75%, 7-2 vote (18 Jun): widening hawkish dissent from 8-1 in April; May CPI 2.8% | The Starmer resignation and leadership contest as a fresh political-risk premium; the next MPC meeting |
BOJ | 🟢 Hiked 25bp to 1.00% (16 Jun), the highest since 1995; the Nikkei broke ¥70,000 intraday | Tokyo core CPI trajectory (1.6% Jun); the pace of further normalisation |
UK Political Transition | 🔴 PM Starmer resigned 22 Jun, the sixth UK PM to depart outside No.10 in seven years | The Labour leadership contest (nominations from 9 Jul, new leader by 16 Jul); GBP and gilt reaction |
AI Capex Cycle / Chip Correction | ⚠️ Broadcom’s cautious guide (3 Jun) and a Korea-led chip-stock rout (23-25 Jun, Kospi down 8%+ intraday) both flagged AI-capex-ROI doubts; Oracle’s extra $20bn raise (11 Jun) added to the “capex indigestion” narrative | Q2 earnings season (July) for AI-capex commentary from hyperscalers |
SpaceX IPO | 🟢 Priced at $135/share, $75bn raised, ~$1.77trn valuation (11-12 Jun), the largest IPO in history; SPCX up 19% on debut day; confirmed for Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective 7 Jul | Post-IPO share-price stabilisation; index-inflow mechanics around 7 Jul |
Global Equities | 🟢 S&P +9.55% YTD, Nasdaq +12.79%, Dow at a record close (+8.85%), Russell 2000 +21.86%: the best quarter since the 2020 pandemic rebound | Q2 earnings season; durability of the Hormuz reopening; the Fed’s next move |