Summary
April 2026 macro backdrop defined by a cycle of ceasefire, blockade, and stalled diplomacy following six weeks of US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Hormuz closure. Brent peaked ~$119 intraday before the 7 April ceasefire drove a -13% single-session collapse to ~$95; oil has since rebounded to ~$108–112 as Iran-US talks stalled and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports took effect 13 April. The FOMC holds rates at 3.50–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting on 29 April — Powell's last as Chair before his term expires 15 May. The DOJ dropped its criminal probe of Powell on 25 April, clearing the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as successor. Q1 earnings season is running materially ahead: 76.8% EPS beat rate, +23.1% earnings growth YoY from 138 reporters through 24 April. S&P 500 at ATH 7,174; Nasdaq ATH 24,887 — but breadth is narrowing, with S&P RSI near 70 and chip RSI above 80. Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours (12 April); ceasefire extended indefinitely (22 April) at Pakistan's request. Iran has offered Hormuz reopening in exchange for the US lifting its blockade — deferring nuclear talks — a deal Trump is unlikely to accept. Mag-7 earnings (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon Wednesday; Apple Thursday) and ECB/BoE decisions (Thursday 30 April) are the remaining catalysts this week. Apple confirmed Tim Cook stepping down as CEO effective 1 September, with John Ternus succeeding him. (29 April 2026 / London)
Major Indices Tracker
What happened in April?
🔑 Macro Context — The Dominant Theme April opened with the war entering its sixth week and Trump's April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its power grid and bridges. Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal and struck back with its own 10-point counter-proposal, brokered through Pakistan. With 88 minutes to spare on 7 April, Trump suspended attacks for two weeks — conditionally tied to Iran allowing "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of Hormuz. The ceasefire triggered the largest single-session crude collapse since April 2020 (-13% Brent) and the Dow's best day in a year. But the relief is provisional: Iran retains operational control of Hormuz, Iranian MPs alleged three US violations within 48 hours, and three supertankers — the first confirmed Hormuz exits since 28 February — only transited on 11 April, the same morning direct US-Iran talks opened in Islamabad. The war is not over. The ceasefire is a pause with a two-week clock.
Week commencing on 6 April 2026
The week delivered the binary markets had been pricing for six weeks. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran at 6:32pm ET on Tuesday — 88 minutes before his stated deadline to obliterate the country's power grid and bridges — on the basis of a 10-point Iranian proposal brokered through Pakistan. Brent fell 13.3% in a single session; the Dow posted its best day since April 2025 (+1,325 pts); Nikkei +5.4%, KOSPI +6.9%. But the relief was textured, not clean. Iran retained operational control of Hormuz passage; Iranian MPs accused the US of immediate ceasefire violations; Brent rebounded above $97 by Thursday as markets priced the corridor's fragility. Friday's March CPI — headline +3.3% YoY, +0.9% MoM, energy +10.9%, gasoline +21.2% — landed in line with consensus but confirmed the war's inflation imprint. Core CPI +0.2%/+2.6% printed below forecast, giving the Fed cover to look through the energy spike if the ceasefire holds. The week ended with the S&P snapping its six-week losing streak (+3.6% on the week, best since November), Pakistan hosting Islamabad peace talks, and every major data point contingent on whether Hormuz remains open for business.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 6 Apr | Trump declares Iran deadline “final” — 8pm ET Tuesday. Iran rejects 45-day ceasefire proposal; submits 10-point counter-proposal via Pakistan. Israel strikes South Pars petrochemical plant (Asaluyeh), killing two IRGC commanders. S&P 500 +0.44% to 6,611; WTI +0.78% to $112.41; Brent +0.68% to $109.77. UBS cuts year-end S&P target to 7,500 (from 7,700); mid-year to 7,000. VIX above 24. Goldman: S&P could reach 5,400 in prolonged conflict scenario. | 🔴 Risk-off | Binary Tuesday outcome dominates positioning. Energy holding elevated. UBS/Goldman target cuts signal consensus deterioration. |
Tue 7 Apr | S&P futures slip 0.5% pre-market as deal optimism fades. Pakistan PM Sharif publicly asks Trump for two-week extension and Iran to open Hormuz as goodwill. S&P ekes +0.08% (6,617); Dow -0.18%; Nasdaq +0.10%. Crude volatile intraday. 10yr Treasury 4.33%. Iran FM Araghchi: “if attacks halted, defensive operations will cease.” Post-close: Trump posts ceasefire on Truth Social at 6:32pm ET — 88 min before deadline. | 🟡 Tentative; post-close relief | Pre-announcement paralysis. Post-close futures: S&P +1.6%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +725 pts. |
Wed 8 Apr | Ceasefire day. Dow +1,325 pts (+2.85%), S&P +2.51% (6,783), Nasdaq +2.80% — best session since April 2025. Brent -13.3% to $94.75; WTI -16.4% to $94.41 — largest single-day crude declines since April 2020. VIX -22%. Airlines surge: Delta +4.2% (Q1 beat), United +7.9%, Carnival +9.6%. Nikkei +5.4%; KOSPI +6.9%; DAX +5.1%; CAC +4.5%. 10yr Treasury 4.29%. Dec-26 rate cut odds jump to 24% (CME). Iran partially re-closes Hormuz in response to Israeli Lebanon strikes — early sign of fragility. | 🟢 Relief rally | Broad sector rotation: travel/leisure, financials, tech all up. Energy majors -8–10% on crude selloff. |
Thu 9 Apr | Iran parliamentary speaker alleges three US ceasefire violations: uranium enrichment rights, continued Israel/Lebanon attacks, drone incursion into Iranian airspace. Crude rebounds: WTI +3%+ to $97.87; Brent +1% to $95.92. S&P +0.62% (6,825); Dow +0.58% — Dow turns positive YTD. Japan: PM Takaichi announces release of 20 days of oil reserves from May. Netanyahu: Israel agrees to open direct negotiations with Lebanon. Islamabad peace talks ongoing. | 🟡 Fragile relief | Durability debate caps indices below pre-war highs. Oil bounce restrains rate-cut repricing. |
Fri 10 Apr | US March CPI: headline +3.3% YoY / +0.9% MoM — highest annual rate since April 2024; energy +10.9%; gasoline +21.2% (largest monthly increase since 1967). Core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.6% YoY — below estimate (consensus +0.3%/+2.7%). National gas avg $4.15/gal. S&P -0.11% to 6,817 (week: +3.6% — best since November). Nasdaq +0.35%. Gold $4,739/oz. Brent ~$96. FOMC Apr 28–29 next catalyst. Goldman Sachs AM: “We believe the Fed will look through the energy-driven noise so long as these factors hold.” | 🟡 Mixed | Headline alarming; core benign. Market reads: Fed holds April FOMC. Tech resilient; industrials/transports cautious on oil bounce. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | S&P snaps 6-week losing streak: +3.6% on the week — best since November; closes 6,817, ~3% below Jan ATH. Dow turns positive YTD. March CPI: +3.3% YoY / +0.9% MoM (highest since April 2024) — energy +10.9%, gasoline +21.2% (largest monthly spike since 1967). Core CPI: +2.6% YoY / +0.2% MoM — below estimate — Fed cover to hold without hiking. PCE Feb: +2.8% YoY core (pre-war, still above 2% target). Dec-26 rate cut odds rise to ~24% post-ceasefire, partially retrace on oil bounce and CPI print. Q1 earnings commence: Delta beats (strong demand, higher bag fees offsetting fuel costs). FOMC Apr 28–29 next. UBS cuts year-end S&P target 7,500; Goldman 5,400 tail. Oxford Economics: April CPI “uncomfortably strong” ahead — gas and BLS shutdown distortion add pressure. | S&P best week since Nov. Rate cut pricing partially restored. 10yr yield 4.29–4.33% range. VIX off highs post-ceasefire. | 🟡 Constructive but fragile. Core inflation contained — gives Fed optionality to hold without hiking. April CPI (released mid-May) the next inflation binary. Ceasefire durability is the primary risk variable. |
🇬🇧 UK | BoE 9-0 hold confirmed in March minutes. UK CPI Jan: 3.0%; BoE projects Q3 CPI reaching 3.0–3.5% on energy pass-through. Second-round risk flagged: UK pay settlements tracking 3.6% (Agents’ survey), above target-consistent pace. UK Q1 GDP estimated +0.1% quarterly — growth essentially stalled. Next BoE MPC meeting: 30 April. No cut expected; hawkish hold posture maintained. FTSE 100 +2.5% on ceasefire Wednesday — energy and mining composition provides structural bid; partially gives back Thu/Fri. GBP stable-to-firm. Prime London real estate: Gulf capital inflows tentatively affirmed by property advisors. | FTSE 100 participates in relief rally; partially retraces Thu/Fri. Gilt 10yr ~4.3% post-ceasefire. | 🟡 BoE cornered: growth weak, inflation above target, energy risk only partially reduced. April 30 MPC — watch for softening on 2026 cut probability if ceasefire holds and energy retreats. |
🇪🇺 Europe | Ceasefire relief sharpest in Europe on the day: DAX +5.1%, CAC +4.5% — best single sessions since March 2022. Stoxx 600 partially reverses Thu (-0.8%) on Iran violation allegations. ECB April 30 meeting — first post-conflict policy assessment with revised projections. March ECB baseline: 2026 inflation 2.6%, growth 0.9%; severe scenario (oil $120 sustained Q2) tilts to recession. QatarEnergy North Field East delay (6–12 months) removes expected LNG 2027–28 supply. European gas ~€55–60/MWh. EUR/USD stabilising above $1.15. Germany: defense and infrastructure fiscal acceleration — structural growth story intact regardless of Hormuz outcome. | Stoxx 600 best week in months on ceasefire; partial retracement Thu/Fri. EUR/USD above $1.15. | ⚠️ Relief real but structural damage persists — energy prices remain ~30%+ above pre-war. ECB April 30 next pivot. Defense structural longs (Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales) unchanged. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | Ceasefire day most acute in energy-import exposed markets: KOSPI +6.9% (Samsung +7.1%, SK Hynix +9.6%); Nikkei +5.4% — best day since April 2025. Thu partial reversal: KOSPI -1.6%, Nikkei -0.7%. Fri recovery: Nikkei +1.75%, KOSPI +1.68%, CSI 300 +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.88%. Japan: PM Takaichi announces release of 20 days of oil reserves from May (total stockpile: 230 days). Yen ¥156–158 area — stabilising as Brent retreats. China: factory-gate PPI turns positive for first time in 3+ years (March); CPI +1.0% YoY. FYP sector themes (AI, drones, biomedicine) intact. Singapore: MAS posture unchanged; SGD stable. India: Operation Urja Suraksha naval escorts ongoing. | Asia ex-China snaps sharp losses post-ceasefire. China/HK outperformers through conflict period. Japan oil reserve release a positive policy signal. | 🟡 Japan and Korea: oil retreat materially improves near-term outlook; yen/won stabilisation reduces stagflation risk. China PPI turning positive — incremental domestic reflation signal. BOJ April Outlook Report next key catalyst. Watch ¥155 yen as stability threshold. |
🛢️ Middle East | Ceasefire announced 6:32pm ET 7 April — 88 minutes before Trump’s deadline. Iran grants “safe passage via coordination” for two weeks; operational control of Hormuz remains with Iran. As of 8 April: 187 tankers carrying 172 million barrels stranded inside Gulf (Kpler). Early transit: two vessels identified by MarineTraffic moving through strait 8 April. Iran parliamentary speaker alleges 3 US violations by 9 April. South Pars (Asaluyeh) petrochemical plant struck (6 Apr) — extent of damage under assessment. Pakistan hosts Islamabad peace talks (10 Apr); Egypt, Oman, Qatar active mediators. War risk insurance remains elevated — settlement lag expected. GCC sovereign wealth tentatively redeploying to DM assets. | Ceasefire partial positive for GCC recovery prospects. Dubai partially functional. Saudi Vision 2030 timelines remain uncertain. | 🔴 Two-week window, not resolution. 172mn bbl stranded crude is the physical pipeline — transit ramp rate determines oil direction over next fortnight. April 21 = implied next deadline milestone. |
🌍 Rest of World | March CPI confirms Hormuz pass-through: gasoline +21.2% (largest monthly spike since 1967). Feb PCE core +2.8% YoY (pre-war, still above 2% target). Goldman: Brent could average >$100/bbl for 2026 if Hormuz remains closed another month. Oxford Economics: April CPI to run hotter as gas prices and BLS government-shutdown data distortion compound. Russia: deepening competitive crude advantage as Asia locks in Russian supply at discount. Islamabad peace process multi-lateral — Egypt, Oman, Qatar, Pakistan all engaged. Australia/Canada commodity exporters remain structural beneficiaries. India: navy escorts active; energy import burden elevated despite partial ceasefire relief. | Global supply chain repricing continues. Shipping/war risk insurance normalisation will lag tanker transit by weeks. | ⚠️ 172mn bbl stranded backlog is the key watch — pace of Hormuz exit determines oil direction over next two weeks. Commodity exporter thesis intact pending full reopening. April CPI print (mid-May release) is the next data risk for the inflation narrative. |
Week commencing on 13 April 2026
The week opened with the Islamabad talks collapsing — 21 hours of the highest-level US-Iran engagement since 1979, no MOU, nuclear enrichment and Hormuz sovereignty the unbridgeable gap. Trump responded immediately with a naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective 13 April, 10am ET), cutting off ~90% of Iran’s seaborne trade at an estimated cost of $400–435mn/day to Tehran. Brent spiked 7% to $102 on Monday. Then the week pivoted sharply. By Wednesday the S&P had hit a new all-time high above 7,000 for the first time. By Thursday Israel and Lebanon had announced a 10-day ceasefire — unlocking Iran’s precondition for Hormuz reopening. On Friday, Iranian FM Araghchi announced commercial passage through Hormuz “completely open”; oil dropped 11% intraday; the S&P closed at 7,126 — a new ATH, up 12%+ from its 30 March nadir. The Nasdaq logged its longest winning streak since 1992. The IMF cut 2026 global growth to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4%, Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations (88% beat rate), and the ECB confirmed April 30 hold with hike risk narrowing. Markets are pricing a resolution they do not yet have. Iran re-closed Hormuz on 18 April after the US refused to lift the naval blockade. The US blockade remains. Talks are expected to resume.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Sun 12 Apr | Islamabad talks collapse after 21 hours — no MOU. Nuclear enrichment (US red line: zero enrichment; Iran: non-negotiable right) and Hormuz sovereignty the core impasse. Vance: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.” Iran FM Araghchi: “inches away from MOU.” Trump posts on Truth Social that talks “went well” but nuclear was the only sticking point; announces naval blockade of Iranian ports effective Monday 10am ET. | 🔴 Risk-off (pre-market) | Escalation resumes. Energy and defence re-bid. |
Mon 14 Apr | US naval blockade of Iranian ports takes effect 10am ET: 10,000+ troops, 12+ warships, fighter jets in Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. CENTCOM: freedom of navigation for non-Iranian vessels preserved; only Iranian port traffic interdicted. Six merchant ships turned back in first 24 hours. Brent +7% to $102; WTI +7.8% to $104. IMF World Economic Outlook released: global growth cut to 3.1% (from 3.3% Jan); headline inflation raised to 4.4% for 2026; adverse scenario (sustained conflict) flags recession risk. China calls blockade “dangerous and irresponsible.” Russia: blockade will “negatively impact international markets.” ECB policymaker Muller: hike cannot be ruled out but April 30 data insufficient to confirm; June meeting the more likely decision point. | 🔴 Risk-off | Blockade adds supply squeeze on top of existing Hormuz disruption. Brent back above $100 erodes ceasefire relief trade. |
Tue 15 Apr | Markets stabilise as Trump signals diplomacy not dead — hints at new talks “by end of week.” S&P +0.8% (7,023); Nasdaq +1.6%. Iran FM Araghchi: MoU was “inches away” — constructive framing from Tehran. Brent ~$95 (Brent pulls back as US blockade scope clarified — non-Iranian vessels unimpeded). US Q1 earnings season accelerating: 88% of S&P 500 reporters beating EPS estimates — four-year high beat rate. ServiceNow +7.3%; Oracle +4.2%. 10yr Treasury yield 4.28%. ECB policymaker Villeroy: “To bet on April would be premature — we need more data on underlying inflation impact.” | 🟡 Cautious recovery | Earnings resilience provides equity floor. Rate hike risk for ECB narrowing toward June as data lag acknowledged. |
Wed 16 Apr | S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for first time ever (7,023). Nasdaq hits record high — first since October. Mag-7 up ~18% from 30 March lows. Trump indicates Iran offered not to seek nuclear weapons “for more than 20 years” — markets run with concession language. Bloomberg: Gulf and European officials say US needs ~6 months for full Iran deal. 10-session S&P gain of +9.8% — faster than post-Liberation Day tariff reversal (Apr 2025) and faster than post-COVID bounce (Apr 2020). Deutsche Bank: “We haven’t seen a run of gains that quick over 10 sessions since the post-Covid bounceback in April 2020.” Netanyahu announces Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire (effective 16 Apr 17:00 EST). Netflix reports Q1 after-hours: earnings beat but 2026 revenue guidance unchanged; co-founder Reed Hastings exits board June — shares -8% after-hours. | 🟢 Risk-on | Momentum-driven ATH. FOMO dynamics dominate. Macro risks not resolved but market pre-empting deal. |
Thu 17 Apr | Israel-Lebanon ceasefire confirmed effective. Iranian FM Araghchi posts on X: “Strait of Hormuz completely open for commercial vessels for remaining period of ceasefire.” Brent -11% intraday. S&P +1.2% to 7,126 — new ATH; Dow +869 (+1.8%) — fully recovers all Iran war losses. Nasdaq +1.5%; longest winning streak since 1992. Airlines surge: United +7.1%; Southwest +5.1%; Royal Caribbean +7.3%; Carnival +7%. Oil-exposed names reverse. Trump confirms Hormuz open but US naval blockade remains “until we reach a deal.” IEA warns Europe has “maybe six weeks of remaining jet fuel supplies.” | 🟢 Strong risk-on | Hormuz reopening triggers second leg of relief rally. Airlines, travel, consumer discretionary lead. Energy majors -6–9% on crude collapse. |
Fri 18 Apr (partial / Good Friday) | Iran re-closes Hormuz — FM Araghchi: closure in response to US refusal to lift naval blockade. Trump blockade remains “in full force.” Oil recovers partially (WTI ~$91–92). S&P holds above 7,100. Markets close early (Good Friday). Iran: 23 vessels intercepted by US blockade to date. BoE and ECB both hold 30 April — next scheduled meetings; hike risk narrowing post-Hormuz partial reopening signal. Week: S&P best week since May (+~5.5%); Nasdaq best week since 1992 run. | 🟡 Cautious | Hormuz re-closure partially offsets rally. Diplomatic process ongoing. Blockade vs. reopening dynamic now the binary. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | S&P 500 best week since May; closes at 7,126 ATH — up 12%+ from 30 March nadir and above pre-war January highs. Nasdaq longest winning streak since 1992; also at ATH. Dow recovers all Iran war losses. Q1 earnings: 88% S&P 500 beat rate — four-year high; Delta, State Street, Fifth Third beat. Netflix -8% post-Q1 (guidance unchanged; Hastings board exit). Mag-7 +18% from 30 March lows — momentum-driven. IMF cuts 2026 US growth; raises US inflation to 4.4%. FOMC April 28–29 next: market now pricing data-dependent hold; cut window reopening slightly if oil subsides. Iran nuclear concession language (Trump: “not seek nuclear weapons for 20+ years”) seen as positive signal for deal. US blockade of Iranian ports: $400-435mn/day estimated cost to Tehran; 23 vessels intercepted to date. | S&P at ATH; Nasdaq at ATH. 10yr yield 4.28–4.33%. VIX below 20 — sub-conflict-onset level. Rate cut pricing beginning to recover. | 🟢 Constructive. Earnings momentum and diplomacy optimism driving. Blockade durability and Hormuz physical re-opening are the two gating conditions. April 28–29 FOMC next catalyst. |
🇬🇧 UK | IMF cuts UK 2026 GDP forecast to 0.8% (from 1.3% Jan) — largest G7 downward revision. BoE April 30 MPC meeting: hold widely expected; Hormuz partial reopening reduces energy inflation tail risk modestly; no cut signal likely until energy path clearer. UK CPI trajectory: Q3 still projected 3.0–3.5% on energy lag. FTSE 100 participates in relief rally on Wed/Thu — energy/mining composition buffers but partially drags on crude selloff Friday. GBP steady-to-firm vs USD. Prime London property: Gulf capital inflow narrative tentatively active. | FTSE 100 volatile week — up on diplomacy days, partially retracing on oil reversal. Gilt 10yr ~4.25–4.30%. | 🟡 BoE April 30 — hold with dovish tone possible if Hormuz reopening sustained. IMF’s UK growth cut most severe in G7; domestic economic outlook weak. FTSE 100 energy weighting a drag if oil falls further. |
🇪🇺 Europe | IMF cuts Eurozone 2026 growth to 1.1% (from 1.3% Jan); flags “major energy crisis” risk if durable solution not found quickly. ECB April 30: hold widely expected — Villeroy (France): “premature to bet on April”; Muller (Estonia): hike cannot be ruled out but data insufficient by April 30. Hike risk narrative narrowing as Hormuz partial reopening reduces severe scenario probability. European gas ~€55/MWh. DAX +5%+ on Hormuz reopening Thursday — partially reverses Friday. EUR/USD stabilising above $1.15. Germany defense/infrastructure spend structural story intact. QatarEnergy North Field East delay ongoing. | Stoxx 600 strong week on diplomacy optimism. DAX leads. ECB hike risk discounted from peak. EUR/USD above $1.15. | ⚠️ ECB April 30 likely hold with marginally softer tone on hike risk. Eurozone growth forecast weakest since COVID era outside war scenarios. Defense structural longs unchanged. Watch June meeting as first live ECB decision point. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | China Q1 GDP: +5.0% YoY — ahead of expectations (4.5–5% target); accelerating from 4.5% Q4. Industrial output +5.7% YoY March; retail sales +1.7% YoY (slowing from +2.8% Jan-Feb); property investment -11.2% Q1 (persistent weakness). Exports +2.5% YoY March (sharp slowdown from +21.8% Jan-Feb). BOJ: April rate hike expectations receding — oil shock risk still a constraint. Nikkei +2.73% on week; hit ATH during week. TOPIX +0.56%. Japan: oil reserve release from May confirmed. Yen ¥154–156 range — stabilising. KOSPI +2.1% mid-week. Singapore SGD stable. HK Hang Seng participates in regional rally. India: Operation Urja Suraksha escorts ongoing. | Nikkei ATH. China Q1 beat provides regional anchor. Japan/Korea benefit from oil retreat. BOJ hike timing pushed further out. | 🟢 China Q1 GDP beat is the regional positive of the week — FYP themes (AI, tech, drones) sustained. Japan ATH on macro optimism; BOJ April Outlook Report next key signal. Korea tech resilient on AI capex. |
🛢️ Middle East | Islamabad talks collapse (12 Apr): nuclear and Hormuz sovereignty unresolved after 21 hours. US naval blockade of Iranian ports begins 13 Apr (10am ET): first 24 hours — 6 ships turned back; 23 total intercepted by week-end. Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire (16 Apr 17:00 EST) — first direct Israel-Lebanon diplomatic engagement in decades. Iran FM Araghchi: Hormuz “completely open for commercial vessels” (17 Apr) — linked to Lebanon ceasefire. Iran re-closes Hormuz (18 Apr) after US refuses to lift blockade. Iran blockade cost: ~$400–435mn/day. Blockade threat to Iranian oil wells: permanent damage risk if not resolved by ~26 Apr (overflow pressure). GCC: 230 loaded oil tankers inside Gulf (ADNOC CEO). Sovereign wealth fund activity offshore continues. | GCC recovery hopes partially restored by Hormuz opening signal, then partially reversed by re-closure. Dubai/UAE economic function slowly restoring. | 🔴 Binary remains active: blockade vs. Hormuz reopening. April 26 the next internal pressure point (Iran oil well damage threshold). New talks expected “this weekend” per Trump — second round of negotiations is the next catalyst. |
🌍 Rest of World | IMF WEO (14 Apr): global growth 3.1% (from 3.3%); headline inflation 4.4% for 2026; adverse scenario (sustained conflict) flags deeper recession. IEA: Europe “maybe six weeks of jet fuel supplies” remaining. Russia: deepening crude market advantage as ghost fleet and China/India reliance expands. India: navy escorts active; INR under modest pressure. Pakistan: diplomatic capital elevated post-Islamabad hosting — Sharif/Munir seen as key broker for second round. Australia/Canada commodity exporters benefit from oil price floor above $90. Global shipping war risk insurance: normalising slowly but cargo backlogs persisting. Fertilizer/food price secondary shock still propagating through EM import costs. | Commodity exporters benefit; import-dependent EMs under continued pressure. Global freight repricing ongoing. | ⚠️ IMF downgrade confirms macro damage from conflict is now in the data. Hormuz re-opening (even partial) is the single most powerful positive macro catalyst available — watch second round of talks as the key variable. April 26 Iran oil well pressure deadline is an underappreciated urgency driver for Tehran. |
Week commencing on 20 April 2026
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Sat 19 Apr | Trump says he opposes extending the ceasefire: “We don’t have that much time.” Iran’s parliamentary speaker alleges 3 US violations. Pakistan takes down Islamabad security checkpoints — signals no imminent second talks. Trump orders Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in Hormuz Strait. US seizes Iranian container ship — first boarding under blockade. Iran calls it piracy. | 🔴 Risk-off signal | Weekend escalation tone sets cautious Monday open. Blockade hardening. |
Sun 20 Apr | Apple CEO transition announced: Tim Cook (65) steps down as CEO effective 1 September 2026 — becomes executive chairman. John Ternus (51), SVP Hardware Engineering, named CEO. Arthur Levinson becomes lead independent director. Succession widely expected; market reaction muted. Widely read as Apple’s AI-credibility play — Ternus is an engineer-CEO. Amazon confirmed $25bn investment in Anthropic. | 🟢 Isolated positive | Apple succession orderly — no de-rating. Ternus hardware pedigree seen as AI-era pivot signal. Amazon-Anthropic deepens AI infrastructure narrative. |
Mon 21 Apr | Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing (Senate Banking Committee). Warsh: “regime change” at Fed — end forward guidance, reduce QE reliance, fewer press conferences, stricter inflation targeting. Vows not to be Trump’s “sock puppet.” Sen. Tillis (R-NC): blocks committee vote unless DOJ drops Powell probe. Committee split 12-12 without Tillis — confirmation stalled. S&P -0.63% (7,064); Dow -293 pts; Nasdaq -0.59% — Nasdaq snaps 13-day winning streak. Brent +3.14% to $98.48. Iran ceasefire set to expire Wednesday. | 🔴 Risk-off | Ceasefire expiry anxiety dominates. Warsh stall adds Fed uncertainty. Oil re-bid on blockade hardening. |
Tue 22 Apr | Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely — “at the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir and PM Sharif of Pakistan” — citing Iran’s “seriously fractured” government. 3–5 days given for Iran to engage. S&P +1.05% to 7,138 (record close); Nasdaq +1.64% to 24,657 (ATH); Dow +341 pts. WTI -0.67% to $89/bbl; Brent -0.48% to $98. Boeing Q1: adjusted loss -$0.20/shr vs -$0.83 est — beat; 737 Max 7/10 certifications expected 2026. GE Vernova Q1 revenue beat ($9.34bn vs $9.25bn est). BMO: Alphabet 2026 GCP revenues to reach $84.8bn (+44% YoY) — raises target to $410. | 🟢 Relief rally | Ceasefire extension removes near-term binary. Earnings beat cadence accelerating. Oil retreating supports rate cut optionality narrative. |
Wed 23 Apr | S&P holds near record. Oil drift higher on doubts over Hormuz. Breadth deteriorating — only 53% of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day MA (down from 60% the week prior). Market RSI ~70 (overbought signals emerging); chip RSI above 80. US Q1 GDP and PCE data pending (28 Apr). Iran reportedly submits new proposal: Hormuz reopening in exchange for lifting US blockade — nuclear talks deferred. Trump signals rejection of the framing. Goldman Sachs raises Brent Q4 forecast to $90/bbl average (from $80) on assumption Gulf exports do not normalise until end of June. | 🟡 Cautious | Rally breadth narrowing — momentum concentrated in Mag-7 and chips. Iran proposal rejected framing signals continued blockade. |
Thu 24 Apr | DOJ drops criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell — US Attorney Jeanine Pirro abandons probe; Inspector General takes over renovation cost overruns. Tillis’s blocker on Warsh removed. Warsh confirmation now expected to advance through committee. Powell’s post-May 15 role uncertain — could stay as FOMC governor until 2028 (blocking Trump from nominating replacement). S&P 500 Q1 earnings through 24 Apr: 138 reporters, 76.8% EPS beat rate, +23.1% earnings growth YoY — above the +14.5% full-season estimate. US PCE Feb: +2.8% core YoY (pre-war baseline). S&P +0.4%. Dow turns flat to slightly positive YTD. | 🟢 Constructive | Warsh path cleared = Fed transition risk partially priced. Earnings beat rate accelerating above seasonal norms. |
Fri 25 Apr | Week closes with S&P at 7,174 (record); Nasdaq at 24,887 (record). Nikkei 225 hits ATH 60,537; KOSPI ATH 6,615. Iran proposes Hormuz reopening conditional on blockade lift — nuclear deferred. Trump says negotiations “by phone” — scraps Islamabad envoy travel (Witkoff/Kushner). Week: ceasefire extended, Warsh unblocked, Apple succession confirmed, Amazon-Anthropic $25bn. Ahead: BOJ (Tue 29), FOMC (Wed 29), ECB (Thu 30), BoE (Thu 30) + Mag-7 earnings (Wed/Thu). | 🟢 Risk-on into week-end | Market positioned for four central bank holds + Mag-7 beats as base case. Hormuz the only material negative overhang. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | S&P 500 closes week at 7,174 — new ATH (up ~9% from 30 Mar lows; fully recovered Iran war losses + new highs). Nasdaq 24,887 ATH. Q1 earnings: 138 reporters, 76.8% EPS beat, +23.1% earnings growth YoY — materially above +14.5% full-season estimate. Boeing Q1 beat (-$0.20 vs -$0.83 est). GE Vernova beat. Amazon +3% on $25bn Anthropic investment. Apple CEO transition: Tim Cook → John Ternus (effective 1 Sep 2026) — orderly, well-telegraphed, hardware-engineer successor signals AI-credibility pivot. Kevin Warsh hearing: “regime change” framing — end forward guidance, QE reduction, stricter inflation mandate, fewer press conferences; Tillis blocks committee until DOJ drops Powell probe. DOJ drops Powell probe (Fri 25 Apr) — Warsh confirmation path unblocked; Tillis signals support. Powell may remain as FOMC governor post-15 May (until 2028), potentially as internal dissenter to Warsh. Goldman Sachs raises Brent Q4 forecast to $90/bbl — assumes Gulf normalisation delayed to end-June. Iran proposes Hormuz reopening conditional on blockade lift, nuclear deferred — Trump signals rejection. Pivotal week ahead: BOJ (Tue 29); FOMC (Wed 29); Alphabet + Meta + Microsoft + Amazon Q1 (Wed 29 after-close); ECB (Thu 30); BoE (Thu 30); Apple Q2 (Thu 30 after-close). | S&P, Nasdaq, Dow all near ATH or records. 10yr Treasury ~4.28–4.35%. Market breadth narrowing (53% above 50-DMA). RSI ~70 — overbought signals. Fed funds: 100% probability of hold at Apr FOMC (CME FedWatch). | 🟢 Constructive with elevated caution. Earnings momentum is real (+23% growth). But rally is momentum-driven and narrow — Mag-7 and chips doing the heavy lifting. RSI overbought; breadth divergence is a technical warning. Warsh confirmation clears one uncertainty. Pivotal week incoming — this is the highest-density catalyst window of the year. |
🇬🇧 UK | IMF UK 2026 GDP cut to 0.8% — worst G7 downward revision (-0.5pp). UK March CPI data pending ahead of BoE April 30 MPC. BoE expected 9-0 hold — watch for language softening on 2026 cut timeline if energy pass-through trajectory improves post-ceasefire. Gilt 10yr ~4.25–4.30%. GBP steady. FTSE 100 participation in ATH rally muted relative to US/Asia — energy/mining drag on oil retreat. Prime London property: Middle East capital inflow narrative firming. UK wage data (Agents’ survey 3.6% settlements) still above target-consistent pace. | FTSE 100 lags US/Asia benchmarks. Gilt yields modestly lower on ceasefire/oil retreat. GBP stable. | 🟡 BoE April 30: 9-0 hold expected. IMF’s UK growth cut is the starkest signal of structural macro weakness among G7. Watch for first dovish signal on 2026 cut — oil retreat and core inflation below-est (March CPI +2.6% core) give BoE cover. |
🇪🇺 Europe | ECB April 30 meeting: hold at 2.0% — unanimous, widely expected. Hike risk narrative materially reduced post-Hormuz partial opening signals and oil retreat. Villeroy (France) and Muller (Estonia) both walk back hike urgency. ECB June meeting now first live decision point. ECB Governor Muller: “Duration of the war is the biggest unknown.” Germany defense/infrastructure fiscal spend structural story: Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales hold structural bid. QatarEnergy North Field East delay ongoing. EUR/USD stabilising above $1.15. European gas ~€52–58/MWh (off peaks). Stoxx 600 underperforming US rally — energy drag. | Stoxx 600 participation in global relief rally but underperforms. ECB hike risk almost fully discounted. EUR/USD above $1.15. | ⚠️ ECB April 30 hold likely dovish-toned — hike risk receding. June meeting is the first real inflection point. Eurozone growth headwinds from oil and weak external demand persist. Germany structural defense/infra longs unchanged. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | Nikkei 225 ATH 60,537 — best weekly performance in months. KOSPI ATH 6,615. BOJ April 29 meeting: rate hike expectations fully priced out — hold at 0.75% near-certain; April Outlook Report will be key signal. Japan exports: seventh consecutive monthly surplus (¥667bn March — below ¥1.1tn forecast); USD/JPY ¥154–156 stabilising. China: industrial profits +15.8% YoY March (accelerating from +15.2% Jan-Feb). CSI 300 steady; Hang Seng mixed. SK Hynix: AI memory demand driving outperformance. Samsung +7%+ on ceasefire day (prior week). Victory Giant (Nvidia PCB supplier) debuted HKEx — surged 50%+ on IPO. Singapore: MAS posture unchanged; SGD stable. India: Operation Urja Suraksha ongoing. | Nikkei and KOSPI at ATH — energy-importer relief and AI/chip narrative driving. China steady. BOJ hold and Outlook Report key for yen path. | 🟢 Japan and Korea riding dual tailwind: oil retreat + AI capex cycle. BOJ April 29: watch for language on rate hike timeline — Shunto wage data (5%+ rises) the key input. China industrial profits acceleration is an incremental reflation signal. |
🛢️ Middle East | Iran ceasefire extended indefinitely (Trump, Tue 22 Apr) — at Pakistan’s request. Blockade hardening: US seizes M/T Tifani (Iranian-sanctioned tanker, Indian Ocean); 23+ vessels intercepted total. Iran oil well overflow damage risk cited past ~26 Apr. Iran new proposal: Hormuz reopening in exchange for blockade lift — nuclear talks deferred. Trump rejects framing. US orders Navy to “shoot and kill” mine-laying vessels. Pakistan checkpoints down in Islamabad — no second round imminent. Trump scraps Witkoff/Kushner travel (“too much time wasted traveling”) — negotiations by phone only. GCC: ADNOC CEO confirms 230+ loaded tankers inside Gulf. Saudi Arabia and UAE production partially curtailed. GCC sovereign wealth fund overseas deployment tentatively ongoing. | GCC recovery prospects fragile. Ceasefire extension positive but blockade-Hormuz standoff unresolved. Dubai/UAE economic activity gradually recovering. | 🔴 Standoff: Iran offers partial deal (Hormuz for blockade lift); US demands nuclear. Neither side capitulating. April 26 oil well overflow deadline may be Iran’s internal urgency driver. Watch for phone-call diplomacy breakthrough vs. resumed hostilities. |
🌍 Rest of World | Goldman Sachs raises Brent Q4 2026 forecast to $90/bbl average (from $80) — assumes Gulf export normalisation delayed to end-June. Iran oil exports: 1.71mn bpd April so far (vs 1.84mn March) — blockade biting incrementally. Russia deepening crude market advantage — India/China ghost fleet reliance expanding. Amazon $25bn Anthropic investment confirmed — signals continued hyperscaler AI infrastructure commitment regardless of macro headwinds. IMF WEO in effect: global growth 3.1%, inflation 4.4% — stagflation risk scenario active. Pakistan diplomatic capital: Islamabad mediator role intact despite second round stall. Fertilizer/food secondary shock propagating through EM import costs. | Global supply risk re-priced higher with blockade hardening. Commodity exporters (Russia, Canada, US LNG) benefit. Import-dependent EMs stressed. | ⚠️ Blockade hardening is supply-tightening — Goldman $90 Q4 call is the new base. Hormuz physical reopening remains the single biggest positive macro catalyst available. Watch Iran’s internal oil well pressure as the hidden urgency driver toward a deal. |
Week commencing on 27 April 2026
The final week of April was the densest catalyst window of the year — and markets cleared every one of them. FOMC held 3.50–3.75% in an 8-4 split decision, Powell's last as Chair, with easing bias inserted into the statement despite three hawks dissenting. The Mag-7 reported: Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon all beat on revenue; Google Cloud +63%, AWS +28% — combined 2026 AI capex from the four now tracking $650–700bn. Apple reported its best March quarter in history ($111.2bn revenue, +17% YoY; iPhone +22%) with June quarter guidance of +14–17% — more than double analyst consensus. ECB held at 2.0% with hike risk language intensifying; eurozone April flash CPI hit 3.0%. BoE held 3.75% in an 8-1 split — Chief Economist Huw Pill the lone dissenter voting for a hike. S&P 500 closed the month at 7,230 — new ATH, and the strongest monthly performance since 2020 alongside the Nasdaq. Hormuz physically remains closed; Brent oscillating $108–112. Powell confirmed he will stay on as FOMC governor through January 2028 — making himself Warsh's most consequential internal counterweight. Iran communicated via Pakistan a draft peace response on Friday. The war is not over. April is.
Date | Key Event | Market Tone | Implications for Equities |
Mon 27 Apr | S&P 500 +0.12% to 7,174 (ATH); Nasdaq +0.20% to 24,887 (ATH). Brent +2.75% to $108.23; WTI +2.09% to $96.37 as diplomacy stalls. Alphabet hits first intraday record since February — up 10%+ in April ahead of earnings. Amazon, Nvidia also at or near ATH. Iran's new Hormuz proposal (Hormuz reopening for blockade lift, nuclear deferred) discussed by Trump NSC — White House confirms. Mag-7 Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon trading up 10%+ in April ahead of results. Warsh Senate Banking Committee advances — committee vote pending following DOJ probe drop (Fri 25 Apr). Market breadth: 53% of S&P 500 stocks above 50-DMA (deteriorating). S&P RSI ~70; chips RSI above 80. | 🟢 Cautious ATH | Market looking through Iran standoff on earnings optimism. Breadth divergence a technical caution. Brent above $100 keeps Fed optionality constrained. |
Tue 28 Apr | S&P -0.49% (7,139); Nasdaq -0.90% (24,664); Dow -26 pts. Brent spikes intraday to $112.70 — highest since 31 March — before settling $111.26. WTI +3% to $99.93. Oil bid on fresh Iran tension: two Iranian container ships seized by US forces in Hormuz strait; Iran calls it piracy. Report: OpenAI growth slowdown (weaker-than-expected user metrics) weighs on tech sentiment. Amazon +0.7% ahead of results (confirmed $25bn Anthropic investment; 2GW OpenAI Trainium deal via AWS). FOMC meeting begins (day 1). | 🔴 Risk-off | Oil re-bid on Hormuz escalation erases Monday gains. Iran vessel seizures harden blockade narrative. FOMC in focus for Wednesday. |
Wed 29 Apr | FOMC holds 3.50–3.75% — 8-4 split (Powell's last meeting as Chair). Powell: inflation "elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." Easing bias inserted into statement — 3 hawks (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissent against easing bias; Miran dissents wanting immediate 25bp cut. Powell confirms he will remain as FOMC governor through January 2028: "Trump's legal attacks have left me no choice." Warsh advances out of Senate Banking Committee the same morning. S&P -0.10% pre-earnings close. After-close: Alphabet Q1 rev $109.9bn (+22% YoY, beat); Google Cloud $20bn (+63%); net income $62.6bn (+81%). Microsoft adj EPS $4.27 (beat $0.21); revenue $83bn (+18%); Azure cloud +29%; AI run rate $37bn. Amazon AWS $37.6bn (+28%, fastest in 15 qtrs); confirmed 2GW OpenAI Trainium + 5GW Anthropic capacity deals. Meta revenue $56.3bn (+33%); net income $26.8bn (+61%); capex raised to $125–145bn (from $115–135bn); user growth missed — partly attributed to "internet disruptions in Iran." | 🟡 Mixed → post-close 🟢 | Divided Fed signals complexity — easing bias positive, hawk dissents constrain cut repricing. Mag-4 earnings: Alphabet and AWS the standouts; Meta -7% after-hours on capex miss and user growth. |
Thu 30 Apr | S&P +0.65% to 7,218 (ATH). Nasdaq +1.0%. Post-close Mag-4 reaction: Alphabet +4%, Microsoft +2%, Amazon +1.5%, Meta -6% (user miss, capex concern). ECB holds at 2.0% — unanimous. Lagarde: "upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified." Eurozone April flash CPI +3.0% (above 2.6% March baseline — energy driving). Lagarde: "In six weeks, we will be able to make a more informed decision" — June now the live meeting. BoE holds 3.75% — 8-1. Chief Economist Huw Pill lone dissenter: voted +25bp to 4.0%. BoE MPR: UK CPI projected 3.1% Q2, 3.3% Q3, rising further Q4. UK Q1 GDP +0.5% QoQ — stronger than expected; Feb alone +0.5% MoM. Bailey: energy shock "differs from 2022 — shock is smaller, policy more restrictive, labour market weaker." Apple Q2 (after-close): revenue $111.2bn (+17% YoY, March quarter record); iPhone $57bn (+22%); Services $31bn (all-time record); June quarter guidance +14–17% (vs analyst consensus +9.5%). Ternus joins call for first time. | 🟢 Risk-on | ECB/BoE holds with hawkish tilt — June the key meeting for both. Apple guidance blowout drives after-hours +3%. S&P/Nasdaq both ATH on close. |
Fri 1 May (May Day) | S&P 500 closes 7,230 (+0.29%) — new ATH, above 7,200 for first time. Nasdaq 25,114 (+0.89%) — new ATH. S&P and Nasdaq post strongest monthly performance since 2020; Dow best month since November 2024. Apple +3%+ on Q2 beat/guidance blowout. Exxon Q1: adj EPS $1.16, revenue $85.1bn — net income -45% (Hormuz-related accounting charges and shipment delays). Chevron Q1: adj EPS $1.41 (beat $0.95 est); revenue $48.6bn (missed $52.1bn est); net income -36%. Brent -2.02% to $108.17; WTI -2.98% to $101.94 — oil falls on reports Iran communicated draft peace response through Pakistan mediators. Warsh Senate floor vote expected week of 5 May. BOJ holds 0.75% (6-3) — three hawks (Nakagawa, Takata, Tamura) dissent for hike to 1.0%. April Outlook Report: FY2026 core CPI revised to 2.8% (from 1.9%); growth cut to 0.5% (from 1.0%). Classic stagflationary framing. | 🟢 Strong risk-on | Month closes at ATH on earnings momentum + Iran diplomatic signal. Oil retreat on peace progress signal. Energy majors give back gains despite Q1 beats. |
Region | Key Events | Market Impact | Equity Signal |
🇺🇸 US | S&P 500 closes April at 7,230 — new ATH; strongest month since 2020. Nasdaq 25,114 ATH. All three major indices above pre-war January highs. FOMC (29 Apr): hold 3.50–3.75% — 8-4 split; easing bias inserted. Three hawks dissent against easing bias (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan); Miran dissents wanting immediate cut. Powell's last meeting as Chair (term expires 15 May): confirms staying as FOMC governor through Jan 2028 — "Trump's legal attacks have left me no choice." Warsh cleared Senate Banking Committee morning of 29 Apr; Senate floor vote expected week of 5 May. Mag-7 earnings: Alphabet Q1 $109.9bn (+22%), Google Cloud $20bn (+63%); Microsoft $83bn (+18%), Azure +29%, AI run rate $37bn; Amazon AWS $37.6bn (+28%, fastest in 15 qtrs); Meta $56.3bn (+33%), capex raised $125–145bn but user growth miss (-7% AH). Apple Q2: $111.2bn (+17%), iPhone +22%, Services $31bn (ATH); June guidance +14–17% vs +9.5% consensus. Combined Mag-4 2026 AI capex tracking $650–700bn. Exxon Q1 adj beat but net income -45% (Hormuz charges). Chevron Q1 adj beat but revenue miss. Iran communicates draft peace response via Pakistan (Fri) — oil retreats. | S&P, Nasdaq ATH. 10yr Treasury 4.35–4.41% range mid-week; eases on Apple/peace signals Friday. VIX below 18. Fed cut pricing: September 2026 earliest realistic (CME consensus). | 🟢 Earnings season delivering. AI capex cycle confirmed at scale. FOMC easing bias = optionality retained. Powell staying as governor = structural hawkish counterweight to Warsh. Warsh floor vote next week — watch for market reaction on confirmation. June FOMC first live Warsh-chaired meeting. |
🇬🇧 UK | BoE holds 3.75% — 8-1 (30 Apr). Chief Economist Huw Pill lone hawk: votes +25bp to 4.0%. Bailey: energy shock "differs from 2022 — policy already restrictive, labour market weaker." BoE MPR: UK CPI forecast 3.1% Q2, 3.3% Q3, "rising somewhat further Q4." UK Q1 GDP: +0.5% QoQ — above expectations; Feb alone +0.5% MoM (unusually strong, BoE flags distortion risk). Pay settlements 3.6% (Agents' survey) — above target-consistent but moderating. Gilt 10yr ~4.30–4.35%. GBP steady-to-firm vs USD. FTSE 100 participates in month-end rally — oil/mining composition partially drags on Brent retreat. Warsh implications for sterling: Fed "regime change" (forward guidance end) adds volatility to rate differentials. | BoE hawkish hold. UK CPI trajectory worsening into H2. Gilt yields stable. FTSE 100 mixed — energy drag partially offset by defensive composition. | ⚠️ BoE in a tighter bind than ECB. Pill's lone hike vote is an early warning signal — if June data confirms Q3 CPI at 3.3%+, MPC split widens. Next meeting: 18 June. UK Q1 GDP strength (Feb distortion flagged) does not change structural weakness narrative. Monitor: UK March CPI (releasing soon), wage settlements, BoE Q2 survey data. |
🇪🇺 Europe | ECB holds 2.0% — unanimous (30 Apr). Statement: "upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified." Eurozone April flash CPI: +3.0% YoY — above 2.6% March baseline — energy pass-through accelerating. Core inflation: +2.2% (contained). Q1 GDP: +0.8% YoY (slowing). Lagarde: "In six weeks, we will be able to make a more informed decision." June 11 ECB meeting is now the first live decision — hike at 2.25% is the market's marginal scenario. QatarEnergy North Field East delay ongoing. EUR/USD above $1.15 — stabilised. Germany defense/infrastructure fiscal spend: structural growth theme intact. European renewables outperformer on week (Nordex +11.8%, Vestas +3%, Orsted +3.9%). Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales maintain structural bid. | Stoxx 600 ends April strong — best month since conflict began. EUR/USD above $1.15. ECB hike risk for June partially priced. | ⚠️ April CPI at 3.0% is the ECB's critical threshold — above March baseline and above the 2.6% projection. June meeting is live: Lagarde's "six weeks" language is deliberate. Core at 2.2% gives cover to hold again, but energy pass-through is accelerating. Defense and renewables structural longs unchanged. |
🌏 Asia (CJK + HK + SG) | BOJ holds 0.75% (6-3) — three hawks (Nakagawa, Takata, Tamura) dissent for hike to 1.0%. April Outlook Report: FY2026 core CPI revised to 2.8% (from 1.9%); growth cut to 0.5% (from 1.0%). Classic stagflationary framing. KOSPI: Korea Q1 GDP +1.2% QoQ — beat; Samsung, SK Hynix holding AI memory demand thesis. China CSI 300: steady, industrial profits +15.8% YoY March confirmed. HK Hang Seng: mixed. Singapore: MAS posture unchanged; SGD stable — safe-haven capital inflow narrative intact. India: Operation Urja Suraksha naval escorts ongoing; INR under modest pressure. Victory Giant (Nvidia PCB supplier) HKEx debut: +50% on IPO — AI supply chain signal. | Asia ex-China held near recent highs. BOJ cut a modest negative surprise for yen bears but Iran peace signal partially offsets. Korea Q1 GDP beat confirms recovery thesis. | 🟡 BOJ cutting (not hiking) — surprises market consensus that was positioned for hold. Oil retreat and peace signal improve Japan/Korea near-term outlook. BOJ June meeting is now the next key signal for yen path. China industrial profit acceleration and FYP themes intact. Watch ¥150 yen as new line to monitor. |
🛢️ Middle East | Hormuz physically closed throughout the week. US naval blockade active — 23+ vessels intercepted. Two Iranian container ships seized in Hormuz (Tue 28 Apr) — Iran calls piracy, ceasefire violation. Brent volatile: $108–113 range. Friday: Iran communicates draft peace response via Pakistan — oil retreats 2–3% on the news. Trump: "We are talking. It's going well." Pakistan mediators remain engaged. Islamabad formal talks stalled — negotiations by phone only. GCC sovereign wealth tentatively redeploying to DM assets. ADNOC CEO: 230+ loaded tankers inside Gulf. Saudi Vision 2030 timelines under review. UAE partial economic function restoring. | Oil volatile $108–113 Brent. Friday peace-signal retreat to $108. GCC recovery prospects inching forward on phone diplomacy. | 🔴 Standoff structurally unchanged. US blockade vs. Hormuz closure: neither side capitulating. Iran draft response the most concrete diplomatic progress since Islamabad talks (12 Apr). Watch Trump's response to Iran draft — if accepted as basis for negotiation, Brent breaks below $100. May 15 (Powell term expiry / Warsh transition) may be a soft deadline for US to show diplomatic progress. |
🌍 Rest of World | Mag-4 AI capex: $650–700bn combined 2026 — Alphabet + Microsoft cloud revenue scaling proves capex converting to demand. AWS +28% (fastest in 15 qtrs) + $25bn Anthropic + 2GW OpenAI deals confirm US hyperscaler supremacy in AI infrastructure. Goldman Sachs: Brent Q4 2026 forecast $90/bbl (Gulf normalisation delayed to end-June). Exxon net income -45%, Chevron net income -36% (Hormuz accounting charges) — war cost now visible in major oil company P&Ls. Russia: ghost fleet and deepening India/China crude discount advantage intact. Pakistan: diplomatic capital highest since Islamabad hosting; Iranian draft response transmitted through Islamabad — Sharif/Munir role confirmed as sole viable channel. India: energy import burden elevated; INR modest pressure. Australia/Canada commodity exporters: Brent floor above $100 supports export revenues. | AI infrastructure investment confirmed at unprecedented scale — global semiconductor, data centre, and power infrastructure supply chains benefit. Energy exporters supported by Brent floor. | ⚠️ Iran draft response is the single most important watch for May. If Trump engages, Brent breaks toward $85–90 and a major global macro tailwind unlocks. If Trump rejects (nuclear non-starter), blockade escalates and Goldman's $90 Q4 base case is tested to the upside. SpaceX IPO S-1 (expected late May) is the next major market structure event. |
Macro Situation - Key Macro Themes
Theme | Status | Watch For |
US-Iran War / Hormuz | 🔴 Hormuz closed; blockade active; Iran draft response submitted (1 May) | Trump response to Iran draft; Brent direction ($100 = holding; sub-$90 = progress); May 15 soft diplomatic deadline |
Oil Price Path | 🟡 Brent $108 (off $113 peak, +48% since 28 Feb). Goldman Q4 forecast $90/bbl | Iran draft response; Gulf export normalisation timeline; blockade scope |
Fed (US) — Warsh era | 🟡 Hold 3.50–3.75%. Powell stays as governor to Jan 2028. Warsh Senate floor vote week of 5 May | First Warsh-chaired FOMC (June 17); forward guidance withdrawal; balance sheet reduction signals |
ECB — June 11 live | ⚠️ Hold 2.0%. April CPI +3.0% — above projection. Hike at 2.25% is marginal scenario | Core CPI trajectory; Hormuz resolution timeline; June 11 decision |
BoE — June 18 | ⚠️ Hold 3.75% — 8-1; Pill dissent for hike. UK CPI Q3 projected 3.3% | March UK CPI; wage data; June MPC — Pill hike vote may widen if energy pass-through accelerates |
BOJ — June meeting | 🟡 Cut to 0.5% (Apr 30 — surprise vs. hold consensus). Yen ¥152–154 | Oil retreat = import bill relief; wage data; June BOJ meeting on hike timeline |
Q1 Earnings Season | 🟢 Complete: 88%+ beat rate; +23%+ earnings growth. Mag-4 beat across the board | Full-season EPS revision; Q2 guidance (Apple +14–17% standout); AI capex ROI scrutiny |
AI Capex Cycle | 🟢 Confirmed at scale: Mag-4 combined $650–700bn 2026 capex. AWS +28%, GCloud +63% | Nvidia Q1 results (next); power infrastructure demand; data centre permitting; chip supply |
Apple CEO Transition | 🟢 Confirmed: Cook → Ternus (1 Sep 2026). Ternus on Q2 call — pledges "discipline + incredible roadmap" | WWDC (June) — AI product roadmap reveal; memory cost guidance; China exposure |
Warsh Confirmation | 🟡 Senate Banking cleared (29 Apr); floor vote week of 5 May | Confirmation vote margin; Powell governor status implications; "regime change" at Fed implementation timeline |
SpaceX IPO | 🟡 S-1 expected late May; roadshow 8 Jun; listing June 2026 | S-1 xAI financials disclosure; $1.75tn valuation validation; market absorption alongside OpenAI/Anthropic pipeline |
Global Equities | 🟢 S&P 7,230 ATH; Nasdaq 25,114 ATH; strongest month since 2020 | Warsh confirmation; Iran draft response; June central bank triple-header; SpaceX S-1 |